FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

25-003

Department of Revenue Releases Spring 2025 Revenue Forecast

Wednesday, March 12, 2025 (Juneau, AK) – Department of Revenue (DOR) Commissioner Adam Crum is pleased to announce the release of the Spring 2025 Revenue Forecast. The forecast includes DOR’s updated outlook for oil price, oil production, and state revenues.

Unrestricted General Fund (UGF) revenue, before accounting for the operating transfer from the Permanent Fund Earnings Reserve, is forecast to be $2.6 billion for fiscal year (FY) 2025 and $2.3 billion for FY 2026, respectively.

The Permanent Fund is set to transfer $3.7 billion to the General Fund for FY 2025 and $3.8 billion for FY 2026, respectively. These amounts include funds that are available for general government spending and annual payment of dividends to Alaskan residents. The Permanent Fund operating transfer remains a large source of funding to the General Fund, contributing 59% of UGF for FY 2025. Based on the Spring 2025 Revenue Forecast, the operating transfer is projected to range from 62% to 65%, for each of the next ten years.

In FY 2024, the Alaska North Slope (ANS) oil prices averaged $85.24 per barrel. The Spring Revenue Forecast incorporates the most current indicators from the financial markets and is based on an annual average ANS oil price. The ANS oil price for FY 2025 is projected at $74.48 per barrel and $68.00 for FY 2026, respectively. The department’s forecast assumes that annual average prices will be within a range of $66.00 to $72.00 per barrel (nominal) for the remainder of the forecast period.

In FY 2024, ANS oil production averaged 461,000 barrels per day. ANS oil production is expected to average 466,800 barrels per day for FY 2025 and 464,000 for FY 2026, respectively, before peaking to 663,500 barrels per day in FY 2034.

In comparison to the DOR’s Fall 2024 Revenue Forecast, which was released in December 2024, the ANS oil price forecast increased by $0.62 per barrel for FY 2025 and decreased by $2.00 per barrel for FY 2026. The ANS oil production forecast increased by 200 barrels per day for FY 2025 and decreased by 5,400 barrels per day for FY 2026. The Unrestricted General Fund revenue forecast for FY 2025 is essentially unchanged from the Fall forecast, as slightly higher expected petroleum revenues are offset by slightly lower revenues from other sources. Driven by the revised outlook of oil price and production, the Unrestricted General Fund revenue forecast for FY 2026 decreased by $70 million.

The Spring Revenue Forecast is an annual update to the Fall Revenue Sources Book, providing basic information about state revenues, as well as a forecast of state revenues over the next ten years. The revenue forecast is available on DOR’s website at https://tax.alaska.gov.

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Media Contact: Aimee Bushnell, (907)465-6829, aimee.bushnell@alaska.gov