Thursday, December 12, 2024 (Juneau, AK) – Department of Revenue (DOR) Commissioner Adam Crum is pleased to announce the release of the Fall 2024 Revenue Forecast. The forecast includes DOR’s updated outlook for oil price, oil production, and state revenues. 

Unrestricted General Fund (UGF) revenue, before accounting for the operating transfer from the Permanent Fund Earnings Reserve, is forecast to be $2.6 billion for fiscal year (FY) 2025 and $2.4 billion for FY 2026, respectively. 

The Permanent Fund is set to transfer $3.7 billion to the General Fund for FY 2025 and $3.8 billion for FY 2026, respectively. These amounts include funds that are available for general government spending and annual payment of dividends to Alaskan residents. The Permanent Fund operating transfer remains a large source of funding to the General Fund, contributing 59% of UGF for FY 2025. Based on the Fall 2024 Revenue Forecast, the operating transfer is projected to range from 61% to 64%, for each of the next ten years. 

In FY 2024, the Alaska North Slope (ANS) oil prices averaged $85.24 per barrel. The Fall Revenue Forecast incorporates the most current indicators from the financial markets and is based on an annual average ANS oil price. The ANS oil price for FY 2025 is projected at $73.86 per barrel and $70.00 for FY 2026, respectively. The department’s forecast assumes that annual average prices will be within a range of $68.00 to $73.00 per barrel (nominal) for the remainder of the forecast period. 

In FY 2024, ANS oil production averaged 461,000 barrels per day. ANS oil production is expected to average 466,600 barrels per day for FY 2025 and 469,500 for FY 2026, respectively, before peaking to 656,900 barrels per day in FY 2034. 

In comparison to the DOR’s Spring 2024 Revenue Forecast, which was released in March 2024, the ANS oil price forecast decreased by $4.14 per barrel for FY 2025 and $4.00 per barrel for FY 2026. The ANS oil production forecast decreased by 10,200 barrels per day for FY 2025 and 12,600 barrels per day for FY 2026. Driven by the revised outlook of oil price and production, the Unrestricted General Fund revenue forecast decreased by $220 million for FY 2025 and $232 million for FY 2026. 

The Fall Revenue Sources Book in an annual publication, providing basic information about state revenues, as well as a forecast of state revenues over the next ten years. The revenue forecast is available on DOR’s website at tax.alaska.gov.