November 16, 2022

Department of Revenue Notification

Due to the volatility associated with petroleum revenues, the Department of Revenue has implemented a process to notify policymakers regarding changes in the revenue outlook. Our goal is to ensure that policymakers have the most accurate and up-to-date information when making decisions that impact the fiscal condition of the state.

The Department of Revenue currently develops a monthly revenue outlook for the current and next fiscal year (for FY2023 and FY2024), that is used internally to review actual revenue for the current fiscal year and to update our estimated revenue based on the most recent information. While this update does not incorporate the level of rigor and detail that we put into the official spring and fall revenue forecasts, it does give an indication of how revenues are expected to perform based on the most currently available information. If the non-POMV unrestricted revenues are estimated to be 10% more or less than the previous official forecast, a notification will be sent to Legislators and others who have requested to be included on the distribution list.

The majority of the difference for FY2024 in revenues is driven by oil price futures; however, the anticipated POMV transfer for FY2024 is now $74.9 million below the Spring 2022 forecast estimate, after incorporating the final FY2022 ending value for the Permanent Fund.

To be included on the distribution list, please contact DOR’s legislative liaison, Joseph Felkl, joseph.felkl@alaska.gov.

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